Tensions between the great powers of the world are increasing. And if they are going to burst, how would a world war would look today?
World War II was a world-changing event. While not all the countries of the world were involved in the war, it affected most of them to some extent.
More than anything, it affected the industrialized nations of the world, what are known as the “first world countries,” a term that you don’t hear all the time.
It is this wide-reaching impact that made what was thought of by some to be a European war, into a world war.
There have only been two world wars in the world’s history and both of them were fought largely in Europe.
Considering that the European countries, especially the British Empire, controlled 30% of the world’s landmass until World War II, it’s really not surprising that those wars became world wars.
But things have changed. One of the major, but little talked about results of World War II was that the British lost their empire. This caused the British Empire to drop from being the world’s greatest superpower to being just one more European country, amongst many. The United States of America took its place as the world’s premiere superpower.
This leads me to think that any future world war would have to center around the United States. That’s not pride and patriotism talking, but merely an analysis of the facts.
No major war (defined as involving more than two countries) happens today, without the USA being involved in some way.
Of course, being the strongest and richest country in the world has its price. Part of that price is that we accumulate enemies much faster than other countries, with many countries claiming that the US government tries to dictate to the rest of the world. Of course, the countries who complain about that either want to invade others or want the USA out of the way for other nefarious purposes.
So, like the Japanese in World War II, these countries turn against the United States. The Japanese never intended to invade the USA during World War II, they just attacked Pearl Harbor to keep the United States from interfering with their plans of conquering the Far East and creating an empire.
What is the Threat?
Predicting the next war is an inexact science that baffles even the best informed. Throughout my years in the military, I heard talk about how the Soviet Union was going to come barreling through the Fulda Gap, launching World War III. That was the war we prepared for, and the war that never happened. The Berlin Wall came down, the Soviet Union collapsed and the world went in a different direction.
That next war turned out to be in the Middle East. I suppose I could say “I told you so” to all my old military buddies, but I’ve lost contact with them in the ensuing years. Even if I could tell them that, the satisfaction would be tempered by the fact that I successfully predicted a war, not something more profitable or enjoyable.
Some of today’s threats are akin to that of the Soviet Union, but others are smaller, even if they are more dangerous. What makes them more dangerous is their unpredictability. Those smaller threats don’t follow the rules the rest of the world does; in fact, it’s hard to say if they follow any rules at all.
Our Current “Threat Board”
Russia – the world’s second largest power and one with imperial ambitions
China – the largest country in the world and one that historically has no love for the United States
Iran – a sworn enemy who has previously declared war on the USA
North Korea – headed by a despotic dynasty, North Korea has also declared war against us
ISIS – while not really accepted as a nation, the Islamic State calls themselves one. They are also the most dangerous nation on the face of the Earth, murdering thousands of people in their “holy war”
There are other countries that we could add to this list, but these would have to be the major players. Our other enemies are either too small, too weak, or smart enough to not make too much noise about attacking America.
Of that list, we can identify four different types of threats that we face:
Conventional war, with Russia or China trying to invade the United States. Not a very likely scenario.
Cyberwarfare, again with Russia or China being the attackers, trying to take down the US government, military, power grid or financial network. Any of those would cause us serious harm and none are adequately protected.
Nuclear War; while Russia and China actually have the ability to attack the USA with nuclear weapons, it is doubtful that either of them will do so. On the other hand, both Iran and North Korea are actively working on the development of nuclear weapons and the intercontinental missiles to deliver them. However, they would be better served by an EMP attack, which would have much wider impact on the United States.
Terrorism, propagated by ISIS or by another terrorist organization, funded and supported by Iran. This is already happening in many parts of the world. Extending it more aggressively into the United States would be child’s play, especially with our porous southern border.
The greatest threats come from the most unstable countries. So, while a war with Russia or China might be more devastating, the reality is that we are at more of a risk of attack from Iran, North Korea or ISIS. Each has declared against us and would love to take us out of their way.
Aren’t We Already in the Midst of World War III?
Some have said that we are already in the midst of World War III; specifically referring to the jihad being waged by ISIS and other radical Islamic terrorist organizations. In one sense, they are absolutely right; radical Islam has declared a war of conquest against the rest of the world, and it appears that they have no intention of stopping until they have succeeded.
With 1.3 billion Muslims in the world today, a fair percentage of which support the idea of jihad to conquer the world and convert every living soul to Islam, it doesn’t look like this war is going to stop anytime soon.
But the Islamic jihad has a number of problems as a war of conquest. First and foremost, Islam itself is divided. More than anything, Muslims are killing other Muslims over doctrinal differences. As long as that continues, it is doubtful that they will succeed in conquering the world.
But that doesn’t mean that they won’t continue trying. Between jihadic terrorism and what I like to call “social jihad” Muslims are making inroads in many countries, especially in Europe, using the Syrian refugee crisis to infiltrate the European countries. Even social jihad has its violent element, as we’ve seen in Europe: supposed Syrian refugees have attacked citizens in Sweden, Germany, France and England.
This makes the central focus of this world war Europe at the moment, just like it was for the last two world wars. Not only is Europe involved in it, but a number of other countries, such as the Philippines, Malaysia, India, Kenya and Tanzania, to name a few. Islam is even making inroads into China, Serbia, Albania and Serbia. Unless something is done about it, the expansion of Islam will continue to take over more and more of the world.
We have felt little of this war here in the United States. But that is about to change. As Europe closes the doors to Syrian refugees, more and more are entering Mexico, first to start the Islamification of that country and then to move into the United States.
Border Patrol is seeing more and more Middle Eastern men crossing the border with Mexican names. They are taking on Mexican identities and even marrying into Mexican families, so that they can come to the United States as Mexicans, rather than Syrians.
In this, they are once again using our own laws against us. While the problem of illegal aliens coming into the United States from Mexico is one that concerns Americans, it is nothing compared to the problem of unveted Muslims. The invasion is on and it is only time until they start to do the same sort of violent acts here in the USA, that they are doing in Europe.
Escalation of the Islamic Threat
While there is a very real war being waged by radicalized Islam today, it is a slow war; one that is intended to last for years. These invaders are patient in their conquest and have centuries of experience in taking over countries through a combination of social jihad and violence.
The tricky thing about this third jihad is identifying when it moves from being a nuisance to being an actual war. It is clear that the jihadists themselves have declared war on us. But many of the methods they use are known to us, defining whether they are acts of war or simple criminal actions is difficult.
Part of the methodology of social jihad is making the areas that Muslims occupy ungovernable, so that the legally constituted government abandons the area, turning it into a “no-go zone” and allowing the Muslims to “self govern;” or institute Sharia Law.
But while the low level warfare of jihad is a clear and present danger to the United States of America, it is nothing compared to what is going on in the Middle East. There, ISIS and other terror groups are killing people by the thousands, some through warfare, but even more through gristly executions. We’ve all seen the videos of ISIS executioners beheading people, setting them on fire and even drowning them because they would not convert to their version of Sunni Islam.
While we have seen the violence of terrorism at work here in the United States, it is hard to quantify it. The previous administration refused to acknowledge that many of the deaths caused by Muslims were acts of terrorism, even while the killers declared their loyalty to ISIS or Mohammad. Instead, they were labeled “workplace violence” denying us accurate data on how bad the situation is.
Hopefully this will change. Unlike the former president, Trump has no ties to Islam, nor reason to give them preferential treatment. Therefore, it is highly likely we will see an upswing in reported Muslim terrorist attacks. Not because there are more, but because they will be reported honestly as what they are.
But I think we can probably expect to see an upswing in actual attacks as well. ISIS is learning from their mistakes and is constantly looking for new means of infiltrating soldiers into our midst. Not only that, but their online recruitment is continuing, seeking marginalized youth that they can convert to their work.
These young terrorists get all the technical and emotional support they need from their Muslim handlers, who encourage them to engage in acts of violence, including taking their own lives as holy warriors.
When we see these attacks, either from misguided youth or infiltrated soldiers on the upswing, we will know that the war has truly reached our shores. But that war is not our biggest danger.
Video first seen on Fox News.
Nuclear War on the Horizon
While the threat of Islamic terrorism isn’t something we can ignore, it is not the biggest threat on the horizon. While they are horrible in and of themselves, terrorist acts hurt few people compared to what nuclear war can kill.
Even the most effective terrorist attack in the history of the United State, the destruction of the twin towers in New York, only killed 2,996 people. An atomic bomb, exploding over Los Angeles, could kill millions.
Chances of an enemy invading the United States are minimal. As Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto is reputed to have said during World War II, “You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.” While obviously an exaggeration, this statement is based upon a very real truth. That is, the American people, especially conservatives, own a lot of guns.
“You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.”
Any invading force would not only have the problem of defeating the United States military, which is the most powerful military on Earth, they’d have to deal with all the armed Americans out there, many of whom are hunters.
The only two countries in the world who have the military might to even attempt it would be Russia and China, and neither of them can muster enough troop transports to make the assault and support it logistically. On top of that, our countries 10 aircraft carriers are more than all the aircraft carriers of all the other countries of the world combined.
But that’s not to say that enemies couldn’t attack the United States and do so effectively. One such attack would be a cyberattack, taking out our communications and the electrical grid. The defenses of our electrical grid are probed regularly, as if potential enemies are seeking weaknesses to exploit.
Both China and Russia are far ahead of the United States in developing cyberwarfare. We ignored this new battle front, at a time when China was creating their fist cyberwarfare division. Their capability today is largely unknown, but it is clear that they have the capability of taking down much that we depend on, without firing a shot.
Should China ever choose to initiate cyberwarfare against the United States, we would probably lose. But then, so would they.
China holds over a trillion dollars of the US federal debt, something that they wouldn’t want to lose. Besides, they wouldn’t want to lose the 347 billion dollars in trade deficit, money that their economy needs to receive, or their country plummets into worse poverty than they’ve ever known.
So, while the risks of invasion or cyberwarfare are real, they are not the biggest risk that we face. Rather, the risk of nuclear war is.
For over 40 years, the United States and the now defunct Soviet Union stared at each other across the world’s oceans, with both sides wondering if that day would be the last. At its height, the two countries held a total of over 70,000 nuclear warheads between them; many more than the approximately 15,000 that exist today. We could have destroyed the world in less than an hour.
Fortunately, we never reached that point. The closest we came was the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. The only reason why John F. Kennedy was able to stare down the Kremlin and put that crisis to bed was that we had intelligence which confirmed that the missiles were not ready for use. This caused the Kremlin to back down and defused the situation.
While we never shot a nuclear tipped missile at Russia and they never shot one at us, the threat of nuclear war has never really left. Our mutual nuclear arms stockpiles make it unlikely that we ever will.
However, there are two countries who are actively seeking to build nuclear arms and the missiles to turn them into weapons of mass destruction, North Korea and Iran; two countries that have declared themselves to be against the United States.
It actually goes deeper than that. Kim Jong Un, the North Korean dictator, has threatened the United States of America with nuclear holocaust over and over again. While his military has had trouble with their missiles, they are continuing testing, seeking to build a missile that can be used against us.
Video first seen on Fox News.
Likewise, Obama’s deal with Iran literally gave them permission to go ahead with their nuclear program, working towards developing their own capability to build nuclear bombs.
Both of these countries are dangerous, due to their unstable leadership and their hatred of the United States. Either could attack with little to no notice, as the preparations for a nuclear strike aren’t something that can be seen by satellite, as the buildup of troops for a conventional invasion is.
What looks like another simple missile test could easily turn out to be the launch of nuclear war, and we wouldn’t know it until the missile was on the way.
It is almost a certainty that both North Korea and Iran will become nuclear powers with ICBMs in the next five years. The question is, what are these countries going to do with that nuclear power? Will they be content with saber rattling or will they feel a need to use it and attack?
There is no real way to predict the answer to that question, but I would not put my faith in either country or their leadership. Their hatred for us might easily overcome their common sense, causing them to attack. Such an attack would of course require retaliation, a retaliation which would make their countries the ultimate losers in that war.
Neither country is likely to have the nuclear might to fight a full-fledged nuclear war, but they could do us considerable damage. Even the destruction of one city, such as Los Angeles (the most likely target for North Korea), would have a huge impact on the American people and on American politics. Regardless of how we responded to that attack, it would scar the country deeply.
But attacking one, two or even 20 cities in the United States would not destroy our country. While it would be a major blow, the United States is too big a country to be destroyed like that. Yes, millions would die and billions in capital would be lost, but the country would survive.
On the other hand, an EMP attack would be much more effective. It quite possibly could spell the destruction of our country, if properly planned and executed. It does not take thermonuclear weapons, ICBMs or miniaturization to create a Nuclear High-Altitude EMP (HEMP). Actually any country that has nuclear weapons and can orbit satellites has the technology and ability to carry out an EMP attack on the USA.
The very nature of this sort of attack would give the attackers the element of surprise, and foreknowledge wouldn’t do us much good anyway.
Regardless of how much notice we had, there is little that any of us could do, or even that our government could do, to prevent the destruction of an EMP. Our power grid would be down, much of our electronics destroyed, and the United States set back by about 150 years.
This is the most likely and the most dangerous scenario for an attack by another country.
Will it happen? Nobody knows. But to ignore the possibility and pretend that everything is okay would be foolish. Learning the error of that mistake would be too expensive to contemplate. Till then, keep preparing!
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This article has been written by Bill White for Survivopedia.
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